Independent Markets Research · Est. 2022
Financial
Gurkha
Equity valuations, macro analysis, and market coverage — researched, written, and filed from Wall Street, New York.
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Featured Analysis
10/20/2026 · Financial Gurkha
The CDS Warning: What the Credit Market Is Pricing Into the AI Boom
Default insurance on AI borrowers has hit record highs from CoreWeave to Nvidia. The spreads, the yields, the trend — and the honest argument for why part of this is hedging, not panic.
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10/19/2026
Record AI Profits, Worst Tech Week Since June: The Cost of Capital Came for AI
TSMC posted the biggest profit in its history on AI demand. In the same week, the Nasdaq fell 4.5% and an AI-infrastructure bond traded above 16%. Wall Street stopped asking whether AI demand is real, and started asking what it costs to finance it.
10/15/2026
An Intrinsic Valuation of Rent the Runway (NASDAQ:RENT)
Revenue is growing, the debt got cut in half, losses are shrinking — and the stock sits near all-time lows at $1.72. Let's run the numbers honestly: what the filings say, what the debt deal cost shareholders, and what the arithmetic implies.
10/13/2026
Trump Accounts Explained: The $1,000 Child Investment Accounts — SWOT and Cost-Benefit Analysis
Washington created 70 million investment accounts for American children this month. Here is a neutral, numbers-first breakdown: how they work, what they cost, what they can earn, and where the scheme is strong — and where it is not.
10/12/2026
Britain's Welfare Bill Is Breaking the Budget — and the Bond Market Has Noticed
The OBR has welfare spending rising from £245 billion to £328 billion in six years. Borrowing is overshooting, the 10-year gilt yields 5.5%, and the IFS says the Chancellor needs £36 billion of tax rises or welfare cuts by October 28. How Britain compares to France — the welfare state that outspends everyone — and the rest of the G7.
10/10/2026
Record Stocks, 24-Year-High Yields: Which Market Is Wrong?
The S&P 500 closed at a record the same week the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002. Both markets cannot be right for long, and how this standoff resolves matters for investors, banks and households alike.
10/04/2026
Physical AI: The Brain and the Body Have Become Their Own Markets
Humanoid robot brains may get their GPT-3 moment by mid-2027. The money is already moving: Physical Intelligence is raising at $11 billion, Skild AI sits above $14 billion, and Spirit AI has robots working on CATL production lines today. Meanwhile the unglamorous bottlenecks — power, thermal, electrical infrastructure — are where deployment scale will be won or lost. This is the first installment of our Physical AI research section.
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Financial Gurkha operates from New York City. Most articles are researched and written from Wall Street and the surrounding Financial District — on the ground, at least twice a week.
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Financial Gurkha · New York City · Est. 2022