Job Openings Jump to 7.5 Million in September as Quits Surge to 3.4 Million

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) at 10 a.m. ET today. The figures, exactly as released:

The headline numbers#

• Job openings: 7.5 million (7.523 million in the tables), a rate of 4.5 percent. That is up 333,000 from August, whose level was revised up by 111,000 to 7.2 million (7.190 million). Economist forecasts centered near 7.1 million, so the print came in above expectations. BLS, applying its statistical-significance standard, characterized the monthly change in openings as "little changed."
• Hires: 5.4 million (5.402 million), a rate of 3.4 percent, up 131,000 from August's revised 5.271 million.
• Total separations: 5.3 million (5.319 million), a rate of 3.3 percent, up 144,000 from August's revised 5.175 million.
• Quits: 3.4 million, a rate of 2.1 percent, up from 1.9 percent in August.
• Layoffs and discharges: 1.6 million, a rate of 1.0 percent, little changed.
• Other separations: 313,000, little changed.

Openings#

The openings rate rose to 4.5 percent from 4.3 percent as first published for August. The one industry move BLS named: openings increased in state and local government, excluding education (+104,000). No industry was named as a decliner.

Quits did the moving#

Quits are the release's clearest change. The level rose to 3.4 million and the rate to 2.1 percent — the rate had been 1.9 percent in August, and August's quits level was revised down by 22,000 to 3.0 million, which makes the September increase roughly 400,000 against the revised base. Over the year, total nonfarm quits increased by 375,000.

By BLS's own definition, quits are voluntary separations initiated by the employee, and the quits rate measures workers' willingness or ability to leave jobs. The September increase was concentrated:

• Accommodation and food services: quits +197,000, hires +158,000, total separations +195,000. One industry accounts for most of the month's churn on both sides of the ledger.
• Arts, entertainment, and recreation: quits −19,000.

Layoffs stayed flat#

Layoffs and discharges were 1.6 million at a 1.0 percent rate. The one named industry move was a decrease in health care and social assistance (−70,000). Among the smallest establishments (1 to 9 employees), the layoffs rate decreased; BLS reported little or no change in the other rates by size class, and little change across the board for establishments with 5,000 or more employees.

One revision matters for reading this line: August layoffs were revised up by 127,000 to 1.8 million. September's 1.6 million is therefore below the revised August level, even though BLS describes the month as little changed.

The August revisions, in full#

• Job openings: revised up 111,000 to 7.2 million
• Hires: revised up 79,000 to 5.3 million
• Total separations: revised up 105,000 to 5.2 million
• Quits: revised down 22,000 to 3.0 million
• Layoffs and discharges: revised up 127,000 to 1.8 million

Where this sits#

This is a September report landing in November. The same month's payroll report, published October 2, showed 29,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.2 percent. The October jobs report follows on Friday, November 6 — the next labor data before the Federal Reserve's December 8–9 meeting, after the Fed held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on October 28. The October JOLTS release is scheduled for Tuesday, December 1.

What the September JOLTS shows, without interpretation: openings rose by a third of a million against a revised base and beat forecasts; hiring rose modestly; layoffs did not rise; and quits jumped by roughly 400,000, led by restaurants and hotels.